As good a threat as this sounds to Enviro-whiners, Green Sleaze, and purveyors of the Carbon Tax on Everything, there is a worm in Eden. There is no evidence for any of it beyond computer models that can be tweaked to predict your grandpa cackled like a goose. Needed are indisputable, renormalized, politically defensible, Officially True facts! Does anybody want a meaty (in a purely vegetarian sense) research grant?
One can be certain that where there is a market, buyers and sellers will appear no matter whether an auction block hosts recreational pharmaceuticals or government regulators eager to shill subsidized debasement. A sphere is tesselated by 4(pi)[180/(pi)]2 = 41,252.961 square degrees, 4(pi) steradians. The Earth is close enough to a sphere to support grant funding. Tour with the authors of Reviews of Geophysics 37(2) 173 (1999) "Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years,"
"We then provide a globally complete absolute surface air temperature climatology on a 1°x1° grid. This is primarily based on data for 1961-1990. Extensive interpolation had to be undertaken over both polar regions and in a few other regions where basic data are scarce....
They resurrected the past, seized the present, and divined the future. Most of those square degree plops have no coherent historical data associated with them because nobody perched all over the Pacific or Arctic Oceans with a thermometer for the past 150 years, likewise vast swaths of Siberia, China, both Poles, the Andes, the Tibetan Plateau... No matter. There is ample grant money to fill in the gaps like a college kid with a tube of toothpaste fixing an apartment ceiling before moving.
Before we get to the good stuff - 95% confidence levels! - we pause to look at the historical record (awkward because it is based on physical documentation). The temperature versus date curve is nicely out of whack compared to CO2 emissions. Rather than a smooth jaunt to Greenhouse er, Global Warming ah, Climate Change Hell we behold two broad plateaus bordered by steep but short ramps. 1860-1940 looks pretty flat and cool, and we know nobody was burning coal or gasoline in that period. 1940-1980 is also flat but, wow!, it is slightly higher in temperature. The urbanization of the First world and the laying of incredible acreages of hot asphalt, cement, cities, and suburbs over moist cool farmlands and swamps had nothing to do with it. First World terrorists were driving Cadillacs! 1980- present really gets, ah, cooking. Many weather stations were placed at civilian and military airports, and you know how lushly coolly forested those places are.
Of 2592 cumulative 5°x5° guessed within the lines grid squares fully 66 blocks, about 4% of Earth's surface area, show 95% confidence level average temperature increases 1978-1997. 30 of them are in the middle-of-nowhere ocean where extrapolation of renormalized satellite data... It is real! 95% confidence level! We made up the numbers ourselves according to validated models! A bunch of other blocks sit atop New York City and other thermoneutral megapolis benchmarks. Looking over the world map and its salient hot spots, one gets the impression that the Greenhouse er, Global Warming ah, Climate Change disaster has its pants jammed around its ankles.
Vast and expensive, counterproductive State-imposed criteria have been instigated. Banishment of First World safe, chemically inert freon (chlorofluorocarbon) refrigerants and their mandated replacement with Officially Safe (acutely toxic, chronically tumorigenic, corrosive, inefficient) hydrochlorofluorocarbons has made its mark: HCFCs are whoppingly potent Greenhouse er, Global Warming ah, Climate Change gases. As sanctified Third World China does its part by leaking more Freon-12 than the whole of the First World ever did, greenhouse er, warmed globe, ah, changed climate forcing by released HCFCs overshadows even modeled CO2 effects. Enviro-whinerism proclaims three unfailing demands: expensive, shoddy, deadly.
Returning to Earth diced into 2592 easy to swallow lumped statistical samplings, we have a little problem (beyond heteroskedasticity). CO2 is a symmetric linear non-polar molecule. A good wide-spectrum IR absorber would be an angular molecule with a permanent large dipole moment, like water vapor. As temperature goes up the air can carry more water vapor. Water vapor in air is not a few parts-per-million, it is percentages (parts-per-hundred). Save the Earth! Drain the oceans, lakes, rivers...! Or at least wrap them in something natural, like leather.
The fatuous threat of Gaian hot flashes may not be a consequence of fossil fuel burning at all. It may be provoked and enforced by reforestation devastating the atmosphere with stupendous gigatonnages of transpired water vapor sucked from the ground and expelled by leaves. Clear cut to save the Earth! We note that some 50% of those 95% confidence levels' historic increases in temperature occurred over oceans literally dripping with water. If things like that were factored into computer models, hoo boy would Mother Earth be in nugatory hot sweat trouble!
More studies are needed.
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